What is Chance?

Philosophy of an Illusion

The accident that occurred was destined to occur.

Chance is only the measure of our ignorance. H. Poincaré

All definitions of chance refer back to ourselves. An unforeseen and inexplicable convergence of circumstances (unforeseen and inexplicable to us). An unexpected event (unexpected by us).

According to our philosophy, the world obeys a destiny. Chance is therefore only an appearance used to explain the inexplicable.

The Example of the Accident

A great many things in a human life seem to belong to chance — but is this really so?

Take an example. I decide to go for a drive... 30 minutes later I have an accident. With my old 2CV I smash into the Hummer of an American governor on holiday on the Côte d'Azur, who has just run a red light. Fortunately, no one is injured.

This kind of misadventure we usually attribute to chance, or more precisely to contingency (that which may or may not occur, which is neither necessary nor impossible).

In other words, we think of this accident as something that might never have happened. We find it hard to admit that it was programmed, determined in some way. Yet this collision could not have failed to occur. For it never to have happened, I would have needed a genuine possibility of avoiding it to have been offered to me. That would have required me, at each decision point leading toward the accident (leaving home or staying, choosing one route or another, slowing down or speeding up), to know its consequences in advance.

But that is impossible, because nothing could have told me that a collision awaited me. The simple fact of not knowing our future means that at no moment can we genuinely choose between two possibilities. To make a real choice, one would need to know, in advance, all the future repercussions of our immediate decisions.

We can of course choose consciously between two immediate actions. I can decide to drink or eat and anticipate the immediate consequence — the quenching of my thirst or the satisfaction of my hunger. But for the long-term repercussions of an immediate act, no genuine choice is possible. Three things, impossible to possess, are missing to make it real and authentic: the gift of ubiquity, knowledge of the future, and zero-degree danger.

1. The gift of ubiquity. Still forbidden to us. It is impossible to be in two different places at the same moment.
2. Knowledge of the future. We are still incapable of knowing with precision what will happen to us in the future, near or distant.
3. Access to zero-degree danger. Even if there is "one chance in ten billion" that a Boeing bolt lands on my head in the next five minutes while I write these lines, that "bad luck" prevents me from being certain about the future. I cannot be 100% sure of it.

For a genuine projected choice to exist, I would need to know in detail the outcome of every decision taken. But that is impossible. At best we have probabilities.

Impulses

Furthermore, many human actions are driven by impulses and passions. These very often surpass our consciousness and our will. The choice then lies entirely in the hands of these tendencies. It no longer belongs to consciousness or reason.

So not only are we not masters of our future — it arrives necessarily as it must arrive.

Consequently: everything that happens is determined.

Year 2001
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